College Football Predictions Week 1 NCAAF 8-26-17

Oregon State Beavers at Colorado State Rams

Spread: Colorado State -4, O/U 59

Betting Analysis: The Rams scored 42 or more points in four of their seven wins last year. However, their defense was a persistent problem against above average offenses. Just take a look at how Colorado State ended its season with a 61-50 bowl loss to Idaho as a two-touchdown favorite.

The Beavers ended last season on a high note with consecutive blowout wins over Arizona and rival Oregon. A lot of people think this will will be a surprise year for the Beavers. I am not one of them.

CSU Betting Resuls2011201220132014201520166-YR TOTAL
STRAIGHT UP 3–9 4–8 8–6 10–3 7–6 7–6 39–38
OVERALL ATS 4–8 4–7 10–4 8–5 6–6 10–3 42–33
HOME ATS 2–4 2–3 4–2 4–2 4–2 5–1 21–14
ROAD ATS 2–4 2–4 6–2 4–3 2–4 5–2 21–19
VS. CONFERENCE ATS 3–4 3–4 5–3 4–4 4–5 7–1 26–21
NON-CONFERENCE ATS 1–4 1–3 5–1 4–1 2–1 3–2 16–12
AS FAVORITE ATS 0–3 1–0 6–2 6–3 4–3 4–2 21–13
AS UNDERDOG ATS 4–5 3–7 4–2 2–2 2–3 6–1 21–20
OVER-UNDER 6–6 5–6 9–3 6–7 7–6 7–6 40–34
OSU Betting Results2011201220132014201520166-YR TOTAL
STRAIGHT UP 3–10 1–11 4–8 2–10 4–9 10–4 24–52
OVERALL ATS 4–9 3–9 7–5 6–6 5–7 10–4 35–40
HOME ATS 2–3 1–5 4–2 4–2 2–4 4–2 17–18
ROAD ATS 2–6 2–4 3–3 2–4 3–3 6–2 18–22
VS. CONFERENCE ATS 3–7 3–6 4–5 5–4 4–5 7–3 26–30
NON-CONFERENCE ATS 1–2 0–3 3–0 1–2 1–2 3–1 9–10
AS FAVORITE ATS 1–1 0–2 1–1 1–2 1–2 6–3 10–11
AS UNDERDOG ATS 3–8 3–7 5–5 5–4 4–5 4–1 24–30
OVER-UNDER 6–7 6–5 7–4 7–5 4–9 5–9 35–39

Oregon State vs Colorado State Prediction:

Two good teams against the spread going at it. I know that the Colorado State defense is going to give up points. I also believe that the CSU offense will be able to match those points in a high scoring game. I have the team with the ball last winning a close game so I am on the points. I am also taking the over in a game I have passing the total by more than a touchdown.

Oregon State vs Colorado State Spread Pick: OSU +4 & Over 59

Hawaii Warriors at Massachusetts Minutemen

Spread: UMass -1, O/U 62

Betting Analysis: In 2016 the Rainbow Warriors won seven games and reached a bowl game for the first time since 2010. The Warriors became bowl eligible with a 46-40 win over UMass in the last regular of the season. It was a great game to watch with the Warriors stopping the Minutemen at the goal line on a potential game-winning drive late in the fourth quarter.

 

Hawaii Betting Results2011201220132014201520166-YR TOTAL
STRAIGHT UP 6–7 3–9 1–11 4–9 3–10 7–7 24–53
OVERALL ATS 3–9 5–7 7–5 6–6 3–10 6–7 30–44
HOME ATS 2–5 3–3 3–3 4–3 1–6 2–4 15–24
ROAD ATS 1–4 2–4 4–2 2–3 2–4 4–3 15–20
VS. CONFERENCE ATS 1–5 2–6 3–5 3–4 1–7 3–5 13–32
NON-CONFERENCE ATS 2–4 3–1 4–0 3–2 2–3 3–2 17–12
AS FAVORITE ATS 2–7 2–0 1–0 2–1 0–3 0–4 7–15
AS UNDERDOG ATS 1–2 3–7 6–5 4–5 3–7 6–3 23–29
OVER-UNDER 9–4 6–5 8–4 5–8 7–6 9–4 44–31
UMASS Betting Results2011201220132014201520166-YR TOTAL
STRAIGHT UP 5–6 1–11 1–11 3–9 3–9 2–10 15–56
OVERALL ATS 0–1 4–8 5–7 8–4 4–8 7–5 28–33
HOME ATS 0–0 2–3 3–3 4–2 2–4 3–3 14–15
ROAD ATS 0–1 2–5 2–4 4–2 2–4 4–2 14–18
VS. CONFERENCE ATS 0–0 4–4 3–5 6–2 2–6 N/A 15–17
NON-CONFERENCE ATS 0–1 0–4 2–2 2–2 2–2 N/A 6–11
AS FAVORITE ATS 0–0 0–0 1–1 2–0 2–4 1–0 6–5
AS UNDERDOG ATS 0–1 4–8 4–6 6–4 2–4 6–5 22–28
OVER-UNDER 1–0 7–5 3–9 8–4 5–7 7–5 31–30

Hawaii Warriors vs UMASS Minutemen Prediction:

Hawaii has been a terrible road team and traveling to the East coast is no way to start out the season. Yes, Hawaii won last year but the game was a toss up. The Minutemen get some revenge this year and will win this game. No bet on the total

Hawaii vs UMASS Pick: Minutemen on the money line

South Florida Bulls at San Jose State Spartans

Spread: South Florida -21, O/U 68.5  

Betting Analysis: Former Texas coach Charlie Strong takes over a Bulls team coming off an 11-win season behind one of the country’s best offensive units (43.8 ppg, No. 4 nationally). The Bulls return dual-threat quarterback Quinton Flowers who accounted for 4,342 yards and 42 touchdowns last season. They also return nine defensive starters. That might be a problem since the Bulls had some real trouble stopping the run and there really isn’t any reason to think that will change early in the season.

On the other side the Spartans have collapsed back to earth after a nice run four years ago. They just don’t have the talent to be a threat to any team in the top 50 in the country. The Spartan defense allowed 35 points per game last year and should be around that this year.

 

USF Bulls Betting Results2011201220132014201520166-YR TOTAL
STRAIGHT UP 5–7 3–9 2–10 4–8 8–5 11–2 33–41
OVERALL ATS 4–8 3–8 5–7 6–6 9–3 8–5 35–37
HOME ATS 2–5 1–4 1–6 3–4 5–0 5–2 17–21
ROAD ATS 2–3 2–4 4–1 3–2 4–3 3–3 18–16
VS. CONFERENCE ATS 1–6 1–5 4–4 4–4 6–1 5–3 21–23
NON-CONFERENCE ATS 3–2 2–3 1–3 2–2 3–2 3–2 14–14
AS FAVORITE ATS 3–6 0–5 0–2 2–2 3–0 8–4 16–19
AS UNDERDOG ATS 1–2 3–3 5–5 4–4 6–3 0–1 19–18
OVER-UNDER 6–6 4–7 3–9 4–8 7–6 10–3 34–39
SJS Betting Results2011201220132014201520166-YR TOTAL
STRAIGHT UP 5–7 11–2 6–6 3–9 6–7 4–8 35–39
OVERALL ATS 8–4 11–2 6–6 3–9 8–5 5–6 41–32
HOME ATS 3–2 4–2 2–4 2–3 4–2 3–2 18–15
ROAD ATS 5–2 7–0 4–2 1–6 4–3 2–4 23–17
VS. CONFERENCE ATS 4–3 4–2 4–4 2–6 4–4 5–3 23–22
NON-CONFERENCE ATS 4–1 7–0 2–2 1–3 4–1 0–3 18–10
AS FAVORITE ATS 0–2 8–2 3–4 3–2 6–1 1–2 21–13
AS UNDERDOG ATS 8–2 3–0 3–2 0–7 2–4 4–4 20–19
OVER-UNDER 6–6 8–4 6–5 5–6 6–5 5–6 36–32

South Florida Bulls vs San Jose State Spartans Prediction:

Can the Bulls win this one by over 21 points? Yes, they could beat the Spartans by 35 points if they wanted to. However, Charlie Strong isn’t that type of coach. He will try and help his defense by running the ball more and controlling the clock. The Spartans will get run over and I think the 21 point spread is the right one. My money is on the under with the Spartans unable to move the ball consistently and the Bulls playing more ball control to help out the defense.

USF vs SJS Pick: Under 68