NCAAB Free Predictions

Syracuse Orange vs Virginia Cavaliers Pick

When: 6:09 PM ET, Sunday, March 27, 2016
Where: United Center, Chicago, Illinois
TV: 6:09 p.m. ET, TBS
Odds: Virginia -8, Total: 124

Virginia vs Syracuse Preview

Let’s start with the teams’ regular season game. UVA won 73-65 as the Over prevailed by 13.5 points. Better yet, Sunday’s figure is two points below the posted number for that day. Virginia shot 56.8 percent in the game, while Syracuse was 13 for 30 on three-point attempts. So the high score was not the result of a parade to the foul line.

In their past two NCAA Tournament outings Virginia exceeded the Over by 16 and 14.5 points. They are clicking on offense and, have grown familiar with fellow ACC Syracuse’s zone defense. If Syracuse is leading late, they figure to accumulate points on free throws. They shoot 75.1 percent from the stripe, 19th highest in the nation. The regular season average for Virginia is 71, which is slightly higher than Syracuse’s 70. The Cavaliers rank seventh nationally in shooting (49.3 percent) while the Orange are 238th (42.7).

Syracuse Orange (22-13) Syracuse’s zone defense has stifled opponents in the tournament, allowing an average of 53.7 points. Leading scorer Michael Gbinije (17.8 points per game) has topped the 20-point mark in his last two games and guard Trevor Cooney has broken free from a late-season slump by averaging 13.3 points and shooting 50 percent from 3-point range in the tournament. Boeheim is in the Elite Eight for the seventh time and is seeking his fifth Final Four berth.

Virginia Cavaliers (29-7) Virginia’s senior Anthony Gill has been a steady leader. Gill had 23 points and eight rebounds versus Iowa State, is averaging 20.3 points on 71.9 percent shooting in this year’s tournament and has scored in double figures in all but one of those eight career March Madness contests. Another senior, Mike Tobey, has emerged in this year’s Big Dance with 36 points on 17-of-23 shooting in 44 minutes off the bench.

ATS TRENDS
Syracuse
Orange are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Orange are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games.
Orange are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win.
Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games.
Orange are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Orange are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Sunday games.
Virginia
Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up win.
Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Cavaliers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 neutral site games.
Cavaliers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 vs. Atlantic Coast.
Cavaliers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
Cavaliers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Cavaliers are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games overall.
Cavaliers are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Sunday games.

OVER UNDER TRENDS
Syracuse
Under is 4-0 in Orange last 4 NCAA Tournament games.
Under is 5-1 in Orange last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 4-1 in Orange last 5 Sunday games.
Under is 4-1 in Orange last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 6-2 in Orange last 8 vs. Atlantic Coast.
Over is 11-4-1 in Orange last 16 neutral site games.
Virginia
Under is 11-2 in Cavaliers last 13 vs. Atlantic Coast.
Under is 10-2 in Cavaliers last 12 games following a ATS win.
Under is 10-3 in Cavaliers last 13 games following a straight up win.
Under is 12-4 in Cavaliers last 16 overall.
Under is 5-2 in Cavaliers last 7 Sunday games.
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Syracuse vs Virginia Betting Pick

I have to admit that Syracuse has surprised me in how well they have done. Virginia has dominated in the way a number one seed should. Looking at the matchup two things stand out. The first is the total is too low. I know the there are some strong under trends for both teams. I look at the last time they played and it seemed obvious that both teams had figured out the others defense and were in a position to score. Syracuse didn’t take full advantage last time but I think they will get a few more three point shots to hit and should keep this game close and higher scoring than the books have posted. My primary bet on this game is the over. If you need to take the side then take Syracuse and the points. On the money line I am only willing to back Virginia but the price is to steep so I will layoff the money line bet on this game.

Score Prediction
Virginia 71 – Syracuse 64

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