BYU vs Boise State College Football Preview

When: 10:15 PM ET, Thursday, October 20, 2016
Where: Albertsons Stadium, Boise, Idaho
TV: ESPN
LINE: Current Lines From Bovada Sportsbook

BYU Cougars (4-3):

Senior quarterback Taysom Hill threw three touchdown passes in Friday’s 28-21 double-overtime victory over Mississippi State and has accounted for 13 touchdowns (nine passing, four rushing) this season. Senior running back Jamaal Williams (3,468) became the school’s all-time rushing list in the Mississippi State contest – surpassing Harvey Unga (3,455 from 2006-09) – and has rushed for 942 yards (second-most nationally) and 10 touchdowns this season. Nacua, a senior, is tied for the national lead with five interceptions and has 13 in his career while sophomore linebacker Francis Bernard (48 tackles) racked up a career-best 16 tackles against the Bulldogs.

BYU was a 28-21 winner in its last match at home against Bulldogs. They failed to cover the -7.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score of 49 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window.

Team record: 4-3 SU,5-2 ATS
Current Streak: won 3 straight games.
Brigham Young is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Brigham Young is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Brigham Young’s last 7 games
BYU is 11-5 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of BYU’s last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of BYU’s last 10 games on the road
BYU is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Boise State

Boise State (6-0):

Junior running back Jeremy McNichols carried 40 times for a career-best 217 yards – the second 200-yard game of his career – in Saturday’s 28-23 victory over Colorado State and has scored 14 touchdowns (11 rushing, three receiving). Sophomore quarterback Brett Rypien leads the Mountain West with 1,622 yards and 12 touchdown passes and has built a solid rapport with Sperbeck, who has 38 receptions (six for touchdowns) to go with a Mountain West-leading 701 receiving yards. Senior defensive end Sam McCaskill has emerged as a force and leads the Mountain West with 9.5 tackles for loss, and his five sacks are second on the team behind sophomore nose tackle David Moa (5.5).

In their last action, Boise State was a 28-23 winner at home against Rams. They failed to cover the -28-point spread as favorites, while the combined score (51) was profitable news for UNDER bettors.

Team record: 6-0 SU,3-3 ATS
Current Streak: won 6 straight games.
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boise State’s last 6 games
Boise State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Boise State’s last 6 games
Boise State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Boise State is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games at home
Boise State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Boise State’s last 10 games at home
Boise State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing BYU
Boise State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing BYU

BYU vs Boise State Prediction:

Boise State is off to a great start at 6-0 but they haven’t been covering the spread at that rate. In the Broncos last five home games they have failed to cover the spread all five times. In those same games, they are 5 and 0 straight up so they have been winning. It is just that the public still has consistently overvalued Boise State over the last couple of years. For me, the key number is 7 points. As long as I can get 7 or more points I am on BYU. If it drops below that then there is no bet.

BYU vs Boise State Pick: BYU +7