Missouri vs West Virginia Pick
2016 College Football Week 1 Preview

It’s the head coaching debut for Missouri’s Barry Odom, a onetime standout linebacker for the Tigers who took over after serving as the team’s defensive coordinator a year ago. On the other side will be West Virginia’s Dana Holgorsen who might be on the hot seat after last year’s October collapse. The Mountaineers won their first three games in dominant fashion before losing four straight to ranked opponents.

Missouri vs West Virginia : Date, Time, Odds,

When: 12:00 PM ET, Saturday, September 3, 2016
Where: Milan Puskar Stadium, Morgantown, West Virginia
TV: Noon ET, Fox Sports 1
Betting Line: West Virginia -9.5
Total: 50.5
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Offense: Starters returning – 5; Defense: Starters returning – 8
Barry Odom takes over as head coach of Missouri. Although QB Drew Lockwill be back, the offense has a long way to go after having ranked 125th in the country last season. Odom’s defense ranked ninth in the nation in total defense and seventh in scoring defense a year ago, and the unit returns eight starters including star defensive end Charles Harris. The offense also has a new offensive coordinator Josh Heupel and a new playbook.

Over the last four years the Tigers are 33-19 straight up and 28-23 against the spread. Last year was a down year and they went 5-7 SU & 3-9 ATS. The one thing that really stands out about last years betting stats, the Tigers were 1-11 on betting over the total.

It is easy to see why the were so bad in covering the over with an offense that ranked in the country in scoring with 13.6 points a game. Every important offensive stat was over 100th in the country. Yards a game 125th. yards per play 125th, yards per rush 118th….you get the idea. On defense, they were a top team ranking 5th in points allowed at 16.2 per game. 3rd in yards per play and 5th in passing yards per game.


Offense: Starters returning – 9; Defense: Starters returning – 4
West Virginia returns nearly its entire offense from last year with nine starters returning. The passing attack will again be led by junior QB Skyler Howard, who threw for 3,145 yards last season. The Mountaineers boasted one of the nation’s top running games in 2015, but Holgorsen would like to see a more balanced offense. Shelton Gibson gives Howard a big-play threat at receiver. The defense is a different story, as only four starters return. The Mountaineers’ most pressing need for new blood is at linebacker, where none of last year’s starters return.

West Virginia has been an average team over the last four years with a 26-25 straight up record and a 20-30 against the spread record. If you look at that ATS record you can see that they have been better winning than covering. Some spread numbers to take note of; Against non conference teams (6-9), as a favorite (11-21), home (11-14).

In 2015, they were a decent team on offense and scored an average of 34 points a game which ranked 35th in the country. The rush was the what made the offense as they ranked 16th in the country. On defense, they were 44th in the country and gave up an average of 24.6 points a game. The weakness on defense was stopping the pass as they ranked 83th in the country.


Missouri vs West Virginia College Football Prediction

Mizzou averaged 13.6 points last season and this years team will feature the power running game. Last year the Tigers’ last five road games all went under the total. In fact, both teams have a strong tendency for the under with the Mountaineers 17-5 to the under in their last 22 and the Tigers on an 18-7-1 under in their last 26.

This game will be a close low scoring game. I like both teams to stay under 24 points. This means I am taking the under and I am taking the Missouri Tigers as long as the spread is 7.5 or more.

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Missouri vs West Virginia Pick: Tigers +9.5 & under 50.5