South Carolina vs Vanderbilt Prediction
2016 College Football Week 1 Preview

2016 College Football Week 1 Prediction


When: 8:00 PM ET, Thursday, September 1, 2016
Where: Vanderbilt Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Betting Line: Vanderbilt -3.5
Total: 42.5
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About South Carolina Gamecocks

Offense: Starters returning – 5; Defense: Starters returning – 8
Not only did South Carolina lose star WR Pharoh Cooper to the NFL, but the transfer of QB Connor Mitch leaves senior Perry Orth and freshmen Brandon McIlwain and Jake Bentley as the candidates for the QB job. New head coach Bill Muschamp will also be without LB Skai Moore, the team’s leader in tackles in each of the past three seasons, to a season-ending neck injury.

Over the last four years the South Carolina Gamecocks have a winning record of 32-19 but, last year the team collapsed as coach Steve Spurrier quit and they ended up with a 3-9 record. They were not a good ATS team under Spurrier with a four year record of 26-24 and last year they were 6-6. In the SEC over the last four years they have an ATS of 14-18 with 3-5 ATS last year. The over under over the last four years was 24-24 but they fell off on offense last year with a 4-7 record on the over.

In 2015 the offense feel apart and ranked 110th in the country in scoring with 21.9 points per game. On defense they fell to 71st in the country giving up 27.5 points a game. This is a team that very well could be starting a true freshman quarterback, has very little proven talent at wide receiver, an unproven defensive line and a shaky secondary. In other words, the cupboard is empty and that will show in week one.

About Vanderbilt Commodores

Offense: Starters returning – 8; Defense: Starters returning – 7
Head coach Derek Mason has had the tough job of trying to rebuild a program while playing in the SEC. He will be helped by the return of QB Kyle Shurmur and RB Ralph Webb (1,152 yds). They can provide some stability in trying to rebuild an offense that was difficult to watch last season.

Over the last four years Vanderbilt has a 25-25 straight up record which masks last years 4-8 season. The same is true of the ATS results for the Commodores, with a four year record of 28-21 looking good but last year they were 6-5 against the spread. In the SEC Vanderbilt made its name for gamblers with a four year ATS of 20-12 with last year still a respectable 5-3. On the totals over the last four years the Commodores were 20-18 with last year an incredible 1-10 on over bets.

In 2015 the offense was a joke and helped create that 1-10 over result. They ranked 124th in the country by averaging 15.2 points per game. In fact, the only major offensive stat that wasn’t ranked over 100 was rushing yards per game where they ranked a pitiful 88th in the country at 154 yards per game. So, how did they win….with defense. They ranked 22nd in the country by giving up 21 points a game. Across the board the defense ranked in the top  half in the country and they did that while playing against some good offenses in the SEC.

2015 South Carolina vs Vanderbilt Betting Trends

South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of South Carolina’s last 16 games
South Carolina is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of South Carolina’s last 6 games on the road
South Carolina is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Vanderbilt
South Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Vanderbilt
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of South Carolina’s last 9 games when playing Vanderbilt
South Carolina is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Vanderbilt
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of South Carolina’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Vanderbilt

Vanderbilt Commodores
Vanderbilt is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Vanderbilt’s last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Vanderbilt’s last 7 games at home
Vanderbilt is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing South Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Vanderbilt’s last 9 games when playing South Carolina
Vanderbilt is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against South Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Vanderbilt’s last 7 games when playing at home against South Carolina

South Carolina vs Vanderbilt Pick

Whose your quarterback Muschamp? He said he would not name one until just before game time to make it difficult for Vanderbilt to prepare. Please, all this means is that he is still hoping for someone to step forward and make an impression because every head coach would give a starter they have confidence in every rep they can during training. The South Carolina offense will be a mess this year with a very weak offensive line and breaking in a new quarterback. This will make them a one dimensional offense early in the season and Vanderbilt has shown the ability to play top defense. Even if the Commodores have some defensive uncertainty of their own the defensive unit of the Commodores will be the best unit on the field. Taking Vanderbilt to win an ugly low scoring game. I am also placing a bet on the under as both offenses are breaking in some new talent and will look like it it week one. My bets are; Vanderbilt -3.5 for 70% and under 42.5 for 30%.

Free Pick: Vanderbilt -3.5 &  Under 42.5