Orioles vs Blue Jays Wild Card Game Preview

Date: Tuesday, Oct. 4
Time: 8 p.m. ET
Venue: Rogers Centre in Toronto
Television: TBS and Sportsnet & Streaming: MLB on TBS
Radio: ESPN Radio
Line: Toronto (-150)
Total: 8.5

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These two teams know each other. Just look at the Head-to-head record. The Blue Jays went 10-9 against the Orioles in 2016, including 6-4 at home. They outscored Baltimore 97-81 in their 19 games. The home/away splits for the season seem to favor Toronto. Orioles on the road: 39-42 (.481), -11 run differential, Blue Jays at home: 46-35 (.568), +38 run differential.

About Baltimore Orioles Chris Tillman (16-6, 3.77 ERA)

For the Orioles to make the playoffs they had to win seven of their final nine games and outscored their opponents 35-21 in those nine games. Tillman went 1-0 with a 3.63 ERA in four starts against the Blue Jays this season.

Orioles: RF Michael Bourn (.264, 5 HRs, 52 RBIs with Diamondbacks and Orioles), CF Adam Jones (.265, 29, 83), 3B Manny Machado (.294, 37, 96), DH Mark Trumbo (.256, 47, 108, 170 Ks), C Matt Wieters (.244, 17, 66), 1B Chris Davis (.221, 38, 84, 88 BBs, 219 Ks), 2B Jonathan Schoop (.267, 25, 82), LF Hyun Soo Kim (.302, 6, 22), SS J.J. Hardy (.269, 9, 48).

Orioles Betting Trends

Money Line
On Road 39-42, -67 (48.1%)
As Road Underdog 26-31, +63 (45.6%)
vs Teams That Win >54% of Games 33-28, +864 (54.1%)
when Chris Tillman starts 22-8, +1327 (73.3%)
Over/Under
vs TOR 7-12 (36.8%)
when Chris Tillman starts 8-21-1 (27.6%)

About Toronto Blue Jays Marcus Stroman (9-10, 4.37)

Their offense was merely very good instead of elite this year and only finished ninth in scoring with 759 runs scored. However, lately they’ve had a hard time generating offense. Toronto averaged only 3.66 runs per game in September and October. Only once in their final five games did they score more than three runs. The Blue Jays went 13-16 in September and October, their first losing month since April (11-14).

Blue Jays: 2B Devon Travis (.300, 11, 50), 3B Josh Donaldson (.284, 37, 99), 1B Edwin Encarnacion (.263, 42, 127), DH Jose Bautista (.234, 22, 69), C Russell Martin (.231, 20, 74), SS Troy Tulowitzki (.254, 24, 79), RF Michael Saunders (.253, 24, 57), CF Kevin Pillar (.266, 7, 53), LF Ezequiel Carrera (.248, 6, 23) or Melvin Upton Jr. (.238, 20, 61 with San Diego and Toronto).

Blue Jays Betting Trends

Money Line
At Home 46-35, -620 (56.8%)
As Home Favorite 43-28, -214 (60.6%)
vs BAL 10-9, -197 (52.6%)
when Marcus Stroman starts 14-18, -951 (43.8%)
Over/Under
At Home 36-43-2 (45.6%)
when Marcus Stroman starts 16-16 (50%)

Orioles vs Blue Jays Prediction:

Blue Jays reliever Joaquin Benoit went 2-0 with a 0.38 ERA and 24 strikeouts in 23 2/3 innings after being acquired from Seattle on July 26, but he tore his left calf running in from the bullpen during a bench-clearing brawl with the Yankees on Sept. 26. That is a big loss for the Blue Jays. On the other side the Orioles have Britton who converted every one of his 47 save opportunities this season and allowed only four earned runs, none after Aug. 24.

Considering I like the Baltimore starter (Orioles 22-8 when Tillman starts) and the Baltimore relievers over Toronto in a one game series it is easy to see where I think there is value in this game. I am taking the Baltimore Orioles on the money line.
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Orioles vs Blue Jays Pick: Baltimore Orioles money line +140