2016 World Series Game 1 Betting Preview
Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Indians

Two teams that have had a long and fairly miserable baseball legacy will face off and for one the curse is over. The other will be entombed in baseball history as a franchise that will find a way to lose. For me, it is about the money so  lets look at an item that most people won’t consider. These first two games are at Progressive Field. Most people who watch baseball know that Coors Field is the highest scoring ball park because of the thin air and large field. What most people do not know is that Progressive Field was the third highest scoring park in baseball in 2016. The park was also 5th in MLB in home runs. Now, a park giving up a lot of runs might be blamed on bad pitching (Arizona) but the Indians had one of the best pitching staffs in baseball and it was still the third highest scoring park. Gives you an idea that there may be a little more scoring than you expect with these two pitching staffs.

The Chicago Cubs finished 3rd in all of MLB in scoring with an average of 4.98 runs per game while the Cleveland Indians were not far behind, ranking 5th with an average of 4.76 runs per game. Against left handed pitching the Indians ranked 5th in MLB batting average at .268. The Cubs ranked 20th in baseball batting average against right handed pitching at .252.

Remember when Terry Francona was a genius who lead the Red Sox to their first World Series since Babe Ruth left? Then remember he was the goat? A side note to this Series will be over who was really responsible for the rise of the Boston Red Sox, Terry Francona or Theo Epstein? Theo got a lot of credit for the rise of the Red Sox and Cubs but, how much of it was him and how much was it to have a franchise willing to open a big checkbook?

World Series Game 1; Where, When, TV

GAME: Chicago Cubs (110-61) at Cleveland Indians (101-68)
DATE/TIME: Tuesday, October 25 – 8:00 PM EST
WHERE: Progressive Field, Cleveland, Ohio
TV: Fox Sports

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Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Indians
World Series Game 1 Betting Lines
World Series Cubs vs Indians Betting Lines from Bovada

If you are going to play fantasy baseball during the World Series then use your picks to make “prop bets” on individual players. See current odds on each player

World Series Cubs vs Indians Prop Betting Odds

Chicago Cubs World Series Game 1 Preview

Jon Lester (19-5, 2.44 ERA)

Jon Lester will get the call in game one of the World Series. The left hander has been brilliant this year and despite his well known problems with fielding the ball and throwing to first he has been the best overall pitcher on the Cubs staff. On the road he has not been as good as home with a 9-3 record and a 3.17 ERA. In his last time out in the World Series for the Red Sox, Jon Lester was 3-0 in the World Series with an incredible 0.43 ERA. In his last five games pitching at Progressive Field he is 3-2 (From Sports Betting Databse on OddsScores.Live), in his last start there he won after going 7 innings and giving up 2 earned runs.

Some Chicago Cubs stats; they ranked 24th in MLB in errors per game with 0.64. In double plays per game the Cubs ranked 28th in baseball with 0.73 per game. Run differential, the Chicago Cubs were easily the best in baseball with a 270 run differential this year. Opponent stolen bases per game, the Cubs were one of the worst in baseball ranking 29th with 0.83 per game.

Cleveland Indians World Series Game 1 Preview

Corey Kluber (18-9, 3.14 ERA)

A lot of attention is on the Chicago Cubs and their extensive fan base. That might be fine with the Cleveland Indians players as they can play the role of the underdog and at +160 opening World Series price they are the dog. In game one the Indians will role out Corey Kluber. At home this year he was 10-5 with a 3.29 ERA. He had some nice post All-Star game splits pre (9-8 & 3.61 ERA), post (9-1 & 2.52 ERA). In the playoffs so far he is 2-1 with a 0.98 ERA. The one thing he had trouble with in Cleveland is a problem all of the pitchers will have. The home run ball. He gave up 14 home runs at Progressive Field.

Cleveland Indians stats; they ranked 9th in MLB with 0.54 errors per game. In double plays the Indians ranked 27th in baseball with 0.78 per game. The Cleveland Indians ranked 4th in MLB in with a run differential of 113. The Indians were the best team in baseball at shutting down the running game, allowing only 0.31 stolen bases per game.

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Indians
World Series Betting Trends:

Chicago Cubs Betting Trends

Cubs are 5-1 in their last 6 interleague road games.
Cubs are 4-1 in their last 5 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Cubs are 40-13 in their last 53 during game 1 of a series.
Cubs are 9-3 in their last 12 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Cubs are 20-7 in their last 27 games following an off day.
Cubs are 19-7 in their last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.
Cubs are 20-8 in their last 28 interleague games.
Cubs are 5-2 in their last 7 playoff games.
Cubs are 51-21 in their last 73 overall.
Cubs are 51-21 in their last 73 games on grass.
Cubs are 72-32 in their last 104 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cubs are 41-19 in their last 60 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Cubs are 107-51 in their last 158 games following a win.
Cubs are 44-21 in their last 65 Tuesday games.
Cubs are 17-36 in their last 53 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 4-0-2 in Cubs last 6 vs. American League Central.
Over is 7-1 in Cubs last 8 road games.
Over is 6-1-1 in Cubs last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 playoff road games.
Under is 4-1 in Cubs last 5 interleague road games.
Under is 13-4 in Cubs last 17 games following an off day.
Under is 15-5-2 in Cubs last 22 interleague games.
Under is 3-1-1 in Cubs last 5 interleague road games vs. a team with a winning record.
Under is 22-8-2 in Cubs last 32 Tuesday games.
Over is 8-3-1 in Cubs last 12 games following a win.
Under is 8-3-1 in Cubs last 12 interleague games vs. a team with a winning record.
Over is 8-3 in Cubs last 11 after scoring 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Over is 11-5-1 in Cubs last 17 on grass.
Over is 11-5-1 in Cubs last 17 overall.

Cleveland Indians Betting Trends

Indians are 6-0 in their last 6 vs. National League Central.
Indians are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Indians are 8-0 in their last 8 games on grass.
Indians are 4-0 in their last 4 playoff home games.
Indians are 10-1 in their last 11 overall.
Indians are 8-1 in their last 9 games following a win.
Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 playoff games.
Indians are 7-1 in their last 8 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Indians are 12-2 in their last 14 interleague games.
Indians are 4-1 in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Indians are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.
Indians are 21-7 in their last 28 games following an off day.
Indians are 23-8 in their last 31 interleague home games vs. a team with a winning record.
Indians are 45-16 in their last 61 home games.
Indians are 19-7 in their last 26 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Indians are 41-17 in their last 58 interleague home games.
Indians are 48-22 in their last 70 during game 1 of a series.
Indians are 1-4 in their last 5 Tuesday games.
Under is 4-0 in Indians last 4 on grass.
Under is 6-0 in Indians last 6 games following a win.
Under is 4-0 in Indians last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Under is 7-0 in Indians last 7 overall.
Under is 7-0 in Indians last 7 playoff games.
Over is 4-0 in Indians last 4 during game 1 of a series.
Over is 10-1 in Indians last 11 vs. National League Central.
Under is 6-1-2 in Indians last 9 playoff home games.
Over is 6-1 in Indians last 7 interleague home games.
Under is 4-1 in Indians last 5 home games.
Under is 17-6 in Indians last 23 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Over is 22-8-1 in Indians last 31 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Over is 19-7-1 in Indians last 27 interleague games.
Under is 7-3 in Indians last 10 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

MLB Umpire Betting Stats

Home plate umpire has not been named yet. When he is go to OddsScores.Live to see his betting stats (overs, home teams, straight up and ATS results)

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Indians
World Series Game 1 Predictions:

It has finally happened. The two losers are in the World Series and one will walk off the field with their fans getting to celebrate that they have finally done it!! Channeling Red Sox fans for how much they will enjoy the victory. What about the loser? Next year or maybe next 71 years? If you want to know why these two teams have turned around their teams. Pitching, pitching and a little more pitching. The Cubs do have one of the best infield defenses in baseball and that has helped the pitching.

To take a look at who you should lay your money on in the World Series. The best place to start is who has won in recent history. The Royals won last year and the Giants have won 3 of the last 5 World Series. What did they have in common? Two things. A hot pitcher and depth. Who is the guy for these two teams? Which one can dominate?

What about a little stat that doesn’t get much notice during the regular season. The Cubs Jon Lester has a well known problem of letting base runners get a big lead. However, the Cubs got lucky going against a Dodger team that could not take advantage of the weakness. The Indians? They lead the American League in base stealing this year with 134 stolen bases and were only caught 31 times. In fact, not only does Lester have a problem slowing down the running but so does Jake Arrieta. Could be big in a Series that I expect to be close.

Pitching!! Who has the betting relievers? Every Cubs fan knows that the Cubs traded with the Yankees for Chapman to win this year. Aroldis Chapman is the top reliever in the National League. But, the Indians counter with a deeper bullpen. That means that in the 5th or 6th inning they can bring in a reliever to shut down an inning before some crooked numbers get put on the board. With Andrew Miller and Bryan Shaw the Indians have the best combo. If you really don’t think that is important. Go back to how the Royals won last year.

So, who to bet on? What I see in the Indians is a team that is built much like the Kansas City Royals. They can steal bases and have a deep bullpen. Going to lay my money on the Cleveland Indians in Game 1.

Chicago Cubs vs Cleveland Indians
World Series Game 1 Pick:

50% Cleveland Indians money line(+100)

50% Added bet on the over 6.5 (-120)