NFL Bengals vs Steelers Prediction 9-18-16

Eight months removed from their fourth-quarter meltdown, the Bengals are back to try again this Sunday afternoon when they play the Steelers in Pittsburgh. In case you need a reminder of the Bengals playoff incompetence. In last years game Jeremy Hill’s fumble opened the door and safety Adam Jones and linebacker Vontaze Burfict committed 15-yard personal foul penalties to provide the opportunity for the Steelers to win the wild card game with a game-winning field goal. Burfict, who is serving a three-game suspension and will miss Sunday’s tilt, ratcheted up the hatred in the series by pulling down Le’Veon Bell on a play that ended his season. With Bell serving a three-game ban, DeAngelo Williams will start and what a backup running back he has turned out to be. In week one he earned AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors by rushing for 143 yards and two scores in Pittsburgh’s 38-16 triumph over Washington on Monday.

NFL Bengals vs Steelers Preview

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, September 18, 2016
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
TV: CBS
Betting Line: Steelers -3
Total: 48.5

About Cincinnati Bengals (1-0):

The Bengals were a 23-22 winner in their most recent outing on the road against the Jets. They earned a push of the -1-point spread as favorites, while the total score (45) made winners of OVER bettors.

Andy Dalton was sacked seven times for a loss of 42 yards against the Jets, yet managed to throw for 366 yards with a touchdown an interception. Pittsburgh didn’t record a sack on Monday against Washington, which is a good sign for Dalton and the Bengals’ offensive line. Last season, Andy Dalton missed the wild-card game after fracturing his thumb versus Pittsburgh in Week 14. A.J. Green had 12 receptions for 180 yards and a touchdown last week.

Cincinnati is 12-3-3 ATS in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Cincinnati’s last 12 games
Cincinnati is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
Bengals are 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Cincinnati is 8-0-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Cincinnati’s last 16 games on the road
Cincinnati is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Bengals are 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Cincinnati’s last 10 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati’s last 7 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Cincinnati is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh

About Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0):

Pittsburgh won its last outing, a 38-16 result against the Redskins on September 12. The Steelers covered in that game as a -2.5-point favorite, while the 54 combined points took the game OVER the total.

The Steelers have a top quarterback & wide receiver combo of their own with Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown. Against the Redskins, Ben threw for three touchdowns and connected eight times for 126 yards and two scores with the Antonio. Roethlisberger owns a 19-7 record versus Cincinnati with an 87.5 quarterback rating and 34 touchdowns and Brown has 36 receptions for 498 yards and two scores in his last five games against the Bengals.

Pittsburgh is 2-1-3 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh’s last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
Steelers are 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Pittsburgh is 14-5-1 ATS in its last 20 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh’s last 10 games when playing Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Pittsburgh’s last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
Pittsburgh is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Cincinnati

 

Bengals vs Steelers Prediction:

These two teams feature a contest between two of the top quarterback & wide receiver combos in the league. The Bengals might want to run the ball more and use a ball control offense to keep their defense off of the field but I don’t think they will be able to. The Steelers offense is just to strong and will be able to score on big plays against the Bengals and force Cincinnati to pass to stay in the game. The Steelers defense can definitely be beat in the air as they do not have the secondary talent level of the Redskins and we saw what Ben was able to do to them. I have my model going over 55 points so I am getting about a touchdown in value on the over bet.

As far as the side bet goes I will be making in game bets. I expect both teams to score and that means there will be value making live betting side bets. An example would be if the Steelers get up to a 10-0 lead. I would expect the live line to go to Bengals +10 at that point I will be betting on the Bengals. With the Bengals offense I would expect them to be able to score and at some point get the lead such as Bengals 24 – Steelers 17. When this happens I should be able to lock in the Steelers at +6. It may seem far fetched to some but taking advantage of scoring variance can mean getting both teams at +4 or better during this game.

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Bengals vs Steelers Pick:

Over 48.5 & Live Bets on the sides with +4 or more