Broncos vs Bengals Predictions

The Bengals straight-up record at home over the past three years is 19-4-1. The Broncos are going on the road for the first time this season. That doesn’t bode well for Trevor Siemian, who hasn’t impressed much in his first two games as starter. Also consider last December’s matchup, where the Bengals took the Broncos into overtime in Denver with AJ McCarron at the helm and no Tyler Eifert.  Cincinnati will be playing its first game at home after opening the season with a road victory over the New York Jets and a loss at Pittsburgh. The Bengals will be relying on their offense, which is averaging 396.5 yards per game, and Andy Dalton, who leads the league with 732 passing yards.

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, September 25, 2016
Where: Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati, Ohio
TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: Bengals -3.5.
Total: 41

About the Denver Broncos (2-0):

Denver’s suffocating defense suffered a big loss as DeMarcus Ware will miss Sunday’s contest after undergoing surgery to have plates inserted in the broken forearm he suffered against the Colts last week. Cornerback Aqib Talib has returned nine interceptions for touchdowns in his career, which has him tied for fourth place on the NFL’s all-time list.
The Broncos were a 34-20 winner in their most recent outing at home against the Colts. They covered the -6.5-point spread as favorites, while the total score (54) made winners of OVER bettors.
Team record: 2-0 SU,2-0 ATS
Denver is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Denver is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Denver is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Denver is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver’s last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Denver is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati

About Cincinnati Bengals (1-1):

Cincinnati’s run defense needs to improve after opponents averaged 138 rushing yards per game. Giovani Bernard was Dalton’s favorite target last week, making a career-high nine catches out of the backfield while recording his second 100-yard receiving performance in the NFL.
Cincinnati lost its last outing, a 24-16 result against the Steelers on September 18. The Bengals failed to cover in that game as a +3-point underdog, while the 40 combined points took the game UNDER the total.
Team record: 1-1 SU,0-1-1 ATS
Cincinnati is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games
Cincinnati is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati’s last 13 games
Cincinnati is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati’s last 13 games
Cincinnati is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games
Cincinnati18-6-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati’s last 6 games when playing Denver
Cincinnati is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Denver

Broncos vs Bengals Prediction:

The Broncos have won a couple of games at home but now they travel for the first time this season. The Bengals after going 1-1 on the road will finally get to have their home opener of the 2016 season. Without Demarcus Ware, the Broncos will lose a big part of the pass rush. Andy Dalton is the type of quarterback who doesn’t mind dumping off the ball and picking up first downs.

The loss of tight end Tyler Eifert has hampered the offense in the red zone. Last year the Bengals averaged 1.7 field goal attempts per game but, this year they are averaging 3.5. The Bengals need to get the rushing game going to give Dalton a chance to throw off of play action. So far this season the Bengals rank 30th in the league with a 2.8 average per rush. The Broncos have been able to run the ball ranking 7th in the league with a 4.2 average per rush. However, they to have had trouble in the red zone scoring a touchdown on only 33% of their drives which ranks 26th in the NFL. On defense, they have been solid overall but they have shown a weakness stopping the run this year ranking 25th by giving up an average of 4.5 per carry.

I don’t trust Trevor Siemian in his first road start. Without consistent quarterback play the Bengals will be able to stack against the run and keep the Broncos offense off the field. The Bengals offense has not been that great this year but I like them in this spot to take advantage of a diminished Broncos pass rush. Taking the Bengals up to -4 points.

Broncos vs Bengals Pick: Bengals -3.5