Lions vs Packers Preview

Detroit Lions

A late interception by Matthew Stafford prevented the Lions from going 2-0 to begin the season as the Lions lost to the Tennessee Titans 16-15.

The Lions had only themselves to blame for the loss to Tennessee with 17 penalties for a loss of 138 yards and those penalties also cost them three touchdowns that were waved off. The Lions’ offense appears to have enough weapons to match the Packers. Detroit is sixth in passing yards per game (285.0) and 10th in rushing yards (126.5). While Detroit’s offense has relied primarily on the passing game, Stafford will be facing a larger burden after starting running back Ameer Abdullah underwent foot surgery and was placed on injured reserve. Theo Riddick will get first crack at taking over as the lead back. He has primarily been in a pass-catching role, tying for the league lead among running backs in 2015 with 80 receptions.

The defense is hurting with three linemen and three linebackers all sitting out practice Wednesday. Even if they were all healthy the defense would be hurting. They just don’t have the talent to compete on defense and they will be susceptible to giving up big numbers all season.

Green Bay Packers

Aaron Rodgers and the Packers like to play the Lions at home where they are 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games there against Detroit. Last year Rodgers and tight end Richard Rodgers hooked up for a game-winning Hail Mary play in a 27-23 win in Detroit. Last week though, Rodgers was constantly pressured in the pocket against the Vikings, as he was sacked five times for a loss of 33 yards. Overall he had 213 yards on 20 of 36 completions with a touchdown and an interception. Those are not the type of numbers that people expected this season with Jordy Nelson coming back after missing the entire 2015 season. So far this year he has thrown for 412 yards.

Running back Eddie Lacy is averaging 4.3 yards on 26 carries. Eddie Lacy didn’t do much to help last week with just 50 rushing yards on 12 carries against the Vikings. However, the Lions are not the Vikings and he will be going against a Lions defense that is 19th against the run, allowing 110.5 rushing yards per game.

The Packers have their own concern on defense with a pass defense that is surrendering 277 yards and is expected to be without starting cornerback Sam Shields on Sunday due to a concussion. Green Bay’s rushing defense is the best in the league so far this season, giving up just 39.0 rushing yards per game.

When: 1:00 PM ET, Sunday, September 25, 2016
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX
LINE: Packers -7
Total: 47.5

Detroit vs Green Bay Betting Trends

The Packers were a 17-14 loser in their most recent outing on the road against the Vikings. They failed to cover the -1-point spread as favorites, while the total score (31) made winners of UNDER bettors.

Detroit was a 16-15 loser in its last match at home against the Titans. They failed to cover the -6-point spread as favorites, while the total score of 31 sent UNDER bettors to the payout window.

Detroit:
Team record: 1-1 SU,1-1 ATS
Detroit is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Lions are 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Detroit’s last 19 games on the road
Detroit is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Detroit is 4-17 SU in its last 21 games when playing Green Bay
Lions are 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 1-24 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay

Green Bay:
Team record: 1-1 SU,0-2 ATS
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Green Bay’s last 17 games
Green Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Green Bay’s last 17 games
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Packers are 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home
Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay’s last 5 games at home
Green Bay is 17-4 SU in its last 21 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 24-1 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Detroit

Lions vs Packers Prediction:

The Packers do not lose at home to the Lions. Going 24-1 straight up is just an incredible stat. This season both teams have some worries in the pass defense. Last week both the Packers and Lions went against teams that were not equipped to take advantage of the weakness they both have on defense. This week, they will be exposed and exposed often. The Lions offense is usually one of the best in the NFL in the red zone. This year they are scoring a touchdown on 71% of the red zone trips. Last year they ranked 2nd in the NFL in red zone proficiency scoring a touchdown on 69% of possessions. Unfortunately for the Lions, their red zone defense was one of the worst in the NFL last year surrendering a touchdown on 63% of possessions. This year, they are the worst with an unheard of 100% of red zone possessions ending up in a touchdown. I know it is to early to make a season long projection but it does show that there was no improvement over the off season.

Both teams will be looking to get the ball down the field and both quarterbacks have the arms to do it. While I like the Packers to win (come on 24-1) that does not mean a blow out victory. I like the Lions to match the scoring with the Packers. I could see Green Bay up by double digits late with the Lions getting the backside cover. One thing I do not expect is for the Lions to have 3 touchdowns called back by penalty again. The Packers, well they have been looking for a game where Rodgers and Nelson could make it look like old times again and the Lions secondary is just the right group to do it.

Lions vs Packers Picks: Lions +7  & Over 47.5

Betting Tip:

The line is different at different sports books. At Bovada the Lions are + 7 (-110) while at SportsBetting.ag the Lions are +7 (+100). That is a 10% bonus on your bet by shopping books. Learn to do this and you will bank some decent ROI over the course of the season.