Game Time, Date, Odds, TV

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots
Odds, Preview, Score Prediction

When: 6:40 PM ET, Sunday, January 22, 2017
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
TV: CBS
Betting Line: Patriots -5.5
Total: 50.5

Steelers vs Patriots Records

Steelers vs Patriots Records

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots Preview

The 2017 AFC Championship Game will match the Pittsburgh Steelers against the New England Patriots. The Pats are at home as the number one seed and they are favored by 5.5 points with the total set at 50.5 points. The two met earlier in the season with the Patriots winning the game in Pittsburgh by a 27-16 score. That game may be a little hard to translate into what will happen this weekend as Ben Roethlisberger did not play. It was Landry Jones as the quarterback and he was 29/47 for 281 yards, with one touchdown and one interception. Jones just could not get the ball down field other than one 51 yard pass to Antonio Brown. Still, with Jones at quarterback the Steelers were in the game until the fourth quarter when a Patriots touchdown made it an 11 point lead.

The Steelers were able to take away the big play from Brady but LaGarrette Blound rand for 127 yards on 24 carries. That is one thing to remember about that game. The Patriots were able to run on the Steelers. LeVeon Bell had a modest day with 81 yards rushing.

Taking a look at a few key stats

The Patriots home margin of victory average this season was 12.6 points while the Steelers average margin of victory on the road was 8.2 points. One thing not to expect this week is for Tom Brady to throw two interceptions. During the season the Pats were the best in the NFL at not throwing interceptions and last week they went against the second best pass defense in football in the Houston Texans. This week, the Steelers are good but they won’t be able to force the turnovers that the Texans did.

Another key stat in this game is in the red zone. Overall this year the Steelers have scored a touchdown 55% of the time they were in the red zone. On the road however, they have been pretty bad with just 37% of the red zone possessions ending up in a touchdown. That was evident against the Kansas City Chiefs and in part explains why they ended up with six field goals and no touchdowns.

Turnover margin favors the Patriots at +0.8 at home this year while the Steelers have a +0.1 turnover margin in road games.

Pittsburgh Steelers (13-5 SU, 11-6-1 ATS)

Pittsburgh is as hot as any of the remaining playoff teams, with nine consecutive victories and a very impressive 7-1-1 ATS. In Sunday’s AFC divisional playoff at No. 2 seed Kansas City, the third-seeded Steelers couldn’t score a single touchdown, but six field goals proved just enough in an 18-16 victory as a 2.5-point underdog.

New England Patriots (15-2 SU, 14-3 ATS)

The Patriots led just 17-13 at halftime of Saturday’s playoff game against Houston. Tom Brady threw two interceptions, one in each half. But the No. 1 seed Patriots ended up rolling to a 34-16 win and cover as a 16-point home favorite. The Patriots are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS over the last 8 games.

Steelers vs Patriots Betting Trends

 

Steelers vs Patriots Stats Overview

Steelers vs Patriots Stats Overview

Steelers vs Patriots Stats Grid

Steelers vs Patriots Stats Grid

Pittsburgh Steelers vs New England Patriots
AFC Championship Game Prediction:

Two of the top franchises in NFL history will be at it again. Steelers vs Patriots, Ben Roethlisberger vs Tom Brady, Mike Tomlin vs Bill Belichick. The TV network should be happy, the fans should get a good game and I like one side in this game so I am happy. What more could I want? Taking a look at what they have done in the past it is obvious that the Pats have the edge on the Steelers. This years Pats team has won with defense (top scoring defense in NFL) and not on Tom Brady’s arm. While it would be a big stretch to compare the Pats with last years Broncos team it is not that different. A veteran quarterback, a decent running game and a top defense.

For Pittsburgh, they have been a hot team and the killer B’s have been rolling. Last week against the Chiefs the Steelers did show one of their few flaws. The red zone offense has not been very good this year. When they are on the road they settle for too many field goals.

This will be a close game. As long as the Steelers are getting 4 or more points I am on them. The total is right in line with my prediction so I have no play on the over / under.

A note here: I will be releasing my Steelers vs Patriots Prop Betting Picks later in the week. You will be able to see them at PropBets.Football (take a look at previous weeks right now). GL

Pittsburgh vs New England Score Prediction:
Patriots 27 – Steelers 23